With the victory of Rodrigo Paz Pereira in Bolivia’s presidential runoff elections on October 19, 2025, the country opens a new chapter in its political history. With 54.5% of the vote in the runoff, the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) candidate defeated former conservative president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who received 45.5%. The result ends twenty years of dominance by the Movement for Socialism (MAS), the party founded by Evo Morales, and ushers in a new era that, in Paz’s words, aims to “reconcile Bolivia with the world.”

58 years old, economist and catholic, Rodrigo Paz is the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, who governed Bolivia between 1989 and 1993. A pragmatic centrist, he managed to overturn the polls thanks to support from middle- and working-class voters, many of them former MAS supporters now longing for stability after years of economic and institutional crisis. It would be misleading to describe his victory only as a “shift to the right”: in Bolivia, voting behavior depends less on ideology than on social, ethnic, and regional identities. It is telling that Quiroga himself, now his defeated rival, twice ran for president under the same party that has now brought Paz to power. “I hope Bolivia returns to the world, and the world returns to Bolivia,” Paz told El País, summing up his intent to restore the country’s international credibility.

Since 2005, under Evo Morales, Bolivia had followed a state-centered, redistributive model that brought growth and inclusion, particularly for the country’s 36 Indigenous communities—around 42% of the population—long excluded from political and economic power. MAS policies also promoted women’s participation: today Bolivia ranks second in the world for the number of women in parliament;

Nineteen years ago, as a young member of the European Parliament, I had the honor to lead the first European Union Election Observation Mission in Bolivia, during the election of the Constituent Assembly presided over by an Indigenous woman, Silvia Lazarte. I vividly remember the energy of that moment: newly elected Indigenous representatives arriving in Sucre after long journeys, bringing with them their colorful traditional clothing and ancestral languages. It was a historic turning point that transformed the country’s political system.

Now, nineteen years later, I have returned to Bolivia as President of the European Centre for Electoral Support (ECES), which manages the EU-funded “Pro-Bolivia” project, aimed at strengthening electoral institutions and restoring citizens’ trust in democracy after the tensions of 2019. It has been moving to witness calm, orderly elections with strong female participation and efficient management by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and SEREPRE. And I am very proud that the technical support provided by ECES team as well as the strong cooperation with the national observer network Observa Bolivia and the Coordinadora de la Mujer was widely recognized and appreciated.

But, despite this show of democratic maturity, Bolivia faces daunting challenges. The historic divide between the Indigenous West and the wealthier, urbanized East has deepened amid a severe fuel crisis that has paralyzed the country for months. In Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, and La Paz, kilometer-long lines form daily at gas stations, with drivers waiting hours or even days to refuel.

The roots of this crisis are structural: the collapse of natural gas exports, a shortage of foreign currency to import fuel, and the declining efficiency of the state oil company YPFB. Key productive sectors—especially agriculture and transport—are in distress, while food prices continue to rise, fueling social unrest. Outgoing president Luis Arce authorized temporary private fuel imports, but with limited success.

The MAS has also been torn apart by internal conflict between Morales and his successor President Arce, compounded by serious accusations against the former president. In the August elections, the party obtained just 3% of the vote, while 20% of ballots were null, reflecting Morales’s residual but real influence.

In this complex scenario, Paz has pledged to promote national reconciliation and cross-party cooperation. His program is based on a model of “capitalism for all”—an economy open to private and foreign investment but mindful of protecting the most vulnerable. It includes tax cuts, easier access to credit, exchange rate flexibility, and a gradual reform of fuel subsidies, which cost Bolivia about $2 billion a year. “Capitalism for all means money for the people, stability to bring prices down, and clear rules—an enabling state that helps you,” Paz said. To reduce the fiscal deficit, now close to 10% of GDP, he plans to use $3.5 billion in approved but unused multilateral loans, avoiding IMF assistance. His “50/50 Agenda” also aims to distribute the national budget more equitably between the central government and the regions and to reform the state to curb waste and corruption.

Rodrigo Paz inherits a country in recession, with dwindling reserves, social tension, and fragile energy infrastructure. Yet his victory has rekindled hope. In his first speech as president-elect, he declared: “A time of hope and hard work begins. Bolivia must believe in itself again.”

After years of tension and disillusionment, the Bolivian people, of rare kindness and warmth, have reaffirmed the power of the vote as an instrument of peaceful change. It is a precious lesson, in times when trust in institutions is being tested everywhere.